"Buresh Blog": Jax 90 degree days + '17 hurricane forecast - April 6th

April 6, 2017 — Summer is not far away!  Jacksonville (JIA) had its first official 90-degree day April 5th - a record for the date (89/1880).  And so our long, hot summer days are just around the corner.  In an average year, we would have "only" 81(!) more days of 90+ degree temps.  A month by month breakdown of 90-degree days:

April - 1.... May - 8.... June - 17.... July - 24.... August - 21... Sept. - 10.... Oct. 1 = 82 90-degree days each year.

Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach has issued their annual first hurricane forecast of the year - click here.

The slightly below average hurricane forecast is predicated on the potential development of an El Nino (for the 2nd time in just 3 years) over the equatorial Pacific.  This warming phenomenon of the Pacific ocean near the equator usually results in an increase in wind shear over the Atlantic Basin which often limits the number of tropical cyclones.

BUT remember that you should always be prepared for the hurricane season.

Speaking of hurricanes.... the National Hurricane Center has issued a summary of hurricane Matthew - click here - which raked the Florida coast about 6 months ago (closest approach to Jax on Oct. 7th).  Dr. Stacy Stewart is one of the best tropical forecasters in the world & is the author of the in-depth report that includes maps, radar & satellite imagery, model & forecast verification & damage / casualty stats.   My own more localized summary of one of the strongest hurricanes to impact the First Coast in arguably 50+ years -- "Matthew" has been retired from the Atlantic list of names & replaced with "Martin" -- can be found - here.

The National Hurricane Center has also issued their 2016 forecast verification summary.

GOES-16 -- the newest NOAA satellite -- continues to undergo testing before data becomes regularly available but the early indication are that we are in for a treat!  Satellite imagery resolution is remarkable not to mention the new lightning data that will soon be available.  Click - here - for the experimental satellite data which includes U.S. sectors, visible, IR & water vapor imagery.

GOES-16 dwarfs the world's first successful weather satellite nearly 60 years ago this April! - TIROS-1.

Our April skies courtesy "Sky & Telescope":

April 6 (all night): The waxing gibbous Moon pairs with Regulus, the brightest star in Leo. Find them high in the southeast at nightfall and watch them travel together through the night.

April 7 (all night): Jupiter is at opposition, meaning that it rises at sunset and remains in view all night.

April 10 (all night): The full Moon beams 2° (early) to 5° (late) from Jupiter.

April 16 (morning): Look for Saturn about 5° below or lower left of the waning gibbous Moon. It’s highest about an hour before sunrise.

April 18 (evening): Look low in the west, where modest Mars shines less than 4° from the Pleiades for the next 5 nights.

April 22 (dawn): The weak Lyrid meteor shower peaks this morning; see graphic.

April 23 (dawn): The crescent Moon is positioned about 8° to the right of Venus low in the east.

Moon Phases
First Quarter April 3, 2:39 p.m. EDT
Full Moon April 11, 2:08 a.m. EDT (known as Pink Moon, from color of ground phlox)
Last Quarter April 19, 5:57 a.m. EDT
New Moon April 26, 8:16 a.m. EDT

Cox Media Group