Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Atlantic quiet but East Pacific much the opposite

Oct. 20, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

There are no areas of concern right now across the Atlantic Basin.

A historical note: Hurricane "King" hit South Fl. 68 years ago as the latest Cat. 4 hurricane to ever hit Fl.  The storm then continued north/northwest up the spine of Fl. producing tropical storm - & at times - hurricane force throughout the east half of Florida including Jacksonville.

And the NHC just issued their first post storm summary of the season - "Alberto" in late May which - originally - made landfall on the Central Gulf Coast as a subtropical storm but the post storm analysis changed the designation to tropical storm (purely warm core).  The weak tropical storm made landfall over the Western Fl. Panhandle causing little damage.

Alberto at landfall:

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

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The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

A cold front will stall across Fl. then move back & forth (north & south) into next week as upper level disturbances move west to east.  Surface low pressure may evolve later next week over the Gulf along the front but current indications are that the low will be nontropical in nature.

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The East Pacific - as has been the case most of the hurricane season - remains active.  Tropical storm "Vicente" & strengthening tropical storm "Willa" are off the coast of Mexico.  This is the first time since 1991 that at least 21 tropical cyclones have formed over the E. Pacific.  Vicente is forecast to dissipate over the next several days while Willa makes a run at becoming a major hurricane with the potential for a landfall on the upper Mexico coast late in the week.  Willa's low level circulation will then dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico while the upper level reflection accelerates east with a deepening upper level trough over the U.S.  There will be no impacts from Willa for the Atlantic side of the U.S.

Willa forecast track:

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