"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Willa becoming "major" hurricane off coast of Mexico, Pacific side

Oct. 21, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

There are no areas of concern right now across the Atlantic Basin.  Low pressure will be developing later in the week near the Gulf Coast then work northeast to near the U.S. east coast &/or the far Western Atlantic through the weekend but will likely stay nontropical in nature.

A historical note: Hurricane "King" hit South Fl. 68 years ago as the latest Cat. 4 hurricane to ever hit Fl.  The storm then continued north/northwest up the spine of Fl. (a little east of Irma's path last year) producing tropical storm - & at times - hurricane force throughout the east half of Florida including Jacksonville.

And the NHC just issued their first post storm summary of the season - "Alberto" in late May which - originally - made landfall on the Central Gulf Coast as a subtropical storm but the post storm analysis changed the designation to tropical storm (purely warm core).  The weak tropical storm made landfall over the Western Fl. Panhandle causing little damage.



Alberto at landfall:

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

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The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

A cold front will stall across Fl. then move back & forth (north & south) into the upcoming week as upper level disturbances move west to east.  Surface low pressure may evolve later in the week over the Gulf along the front but current indications are that the low will be nontropical in nature.

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The East Pacific - as has been the case most of the hurricane season - remains active.  Tropical storm "Vicente" & fast strengthening hurricane "Willa" are off the coast of Mexico.  This is the first time since 1991 that at least 21 tropical cyclones have formed over the E. Pacific.  Tiny Vicente is forecast to dissipate near the coast of Mexico within the next few days while Willa becomes a major hurricane with the potential for a landfall on the upper Mexico coast by midweek.  Willa's low level circulation will then dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico while the upper level reflection accelerates east/northeast with a deepening upper level trough over the U.S.  There will be no impacts from Willa on the U.S.

Willa forecast track:

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Cox Media Group