Weather

Hurricane Gert between U.S. & Bermuda - Aug. 16th

Aug. 16, 2017 — Hurricane Gert over the W. Atlantic & moving away from Jacksonville & the U.S. east coast....

.... NO impacts for NE Fl./SE Ga.....

"Gert" reached Jacksonville's latitude Mon. evening.... has turned north & will be accelerating northeast over the open N. Atlantic staying east of the U.S. east coast & west then north of Bermuda.  Rapid weakening will occur due to cool sea surface water + increasing shear late this week into the weekend.

"Gert" is the 2nd hurricane of the Atlantic 2017 season.  According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the avg. date for the 2nd Atlantic Basin hurricane is not until Aug. 28th.   A weak but still significant upper level trough + surface cold front along the east coast of the U.S. (blue line below) will insure the northward turn then the acceleration to the northeast far from any land areas.

Meanwhile.... a large but disorganized area of "disturbed" weather ('91L') is over the Eastern Atlantic.  Overall conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone this week over the Central Atlantic.  Virtually all forecast models have been flipping more than a fish out of water... more than the avg. politician... more than the perfect evenly fried egg - if you get my drift(!).   It appears that the lead wave - '91L' is destined for the Caribbean & will eventually battle quite a bit of shear.  A trailing wave - '92L' - should end up farther north.  It's ultimate course may be dictated by how early the potential tropical cyclone develops.  A stronger, deeper system would turn north earlier.  But be careful not to get too caught up in individual output of any model run.  The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... an uptick in activity over the Atlantic Basin is underway & will continue for at least the next 10-13 days.  Always be prepared!

East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa.

Model plots for wave '91L' over the E. Atlantic:

Model plots for '92L':

Adding fuel to the fire of an imminent uptick in activity over the tropical Atlantic: a telling map below -- the Velocity Potential Anomalies -- shows widespread & strong "upward" vertical motion over much of the Atlantic Basin.  This kind of pattern often correlates with an increase in tropical activity.  As we head toward the peak of the hurricane season, one should be prepared year 'round!

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Then there are the above avg. sea surface temps. in the main development region (MDR) of the deep tropical Atlantic - can add "energy" for tropical systems:

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Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) - increasing shear along the path of '91L' once/if into the Caribbean:

Water vapor imagery:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) still pretty persistent over the E/NE Atlantic.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

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Caribbean:

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