Hurricane Gert well NE of Jacksonville - Aug. 15th

Aug. 15, 2017 — Hurricane Gert far to the northeast of Jacksonville....

.... NO significant impacts for NE Fl./SE Ga.....

"Gert" reached Jacksonville's latitude Mon. evening.... & will be turning north then accelerating northeast over the open N. Atlantic staying east of the U.S. east coast & west then north of Bermuda.  Rapid weakening will occur due to cool sea surface water + increasing shear late this week into the weekend.

"Gert" is the 2nd hurricane of the Atlantic 2017 season.  According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the avg. date for the 2nd Atlantic Basin hurricane is not until Aug. 28th.   A weak but still significant upper level trough + surface cold front along the east coast of the U.S. (blue line below) will insure the northward turn then the acceleration to the northeast far from any land areas.

There will be a bit of an uptick in wave action (an easterly swell) & rip current risk into Tue. for coastal Florida & SE Ga.... with a more significant increase from the SC coast to Chesapeake Bay... even as far north as New England for mid to late week.

Much higher seas will stay well offshore....

Meanwhile.... a large but disorganized area of "disturbed" weather ('91L') is over the Eastern Atlantic.  Overall conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone this week over the Central Atlantic.  Virtually all forecast models have been flipping more than a fish out of water... more than the avg. politician... more than the perfect evenly fried egg - if you get my drift(!).   But it seems possible that the lead wave will gradually consolidate & could become "Harvey" later this week/weekend while moving generally west or slightly northwest.  Another wave moving off Africa will closely follow & could become "Irma".  In fact, some global models are now giving the latter more emphasis.  But be careful not to get too caught up in individual output of any model run.  The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... an uptick in activity over the Atlantic Basin is underway & will continue for at least the next 10-13 days.  Always be prepared!

East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa.

Model plots for wave '91L' over the E. Atlantic:

Adding fuel to the fire of an imminent uptick in activity over the tropical Atlantic: a telling map below -- the Velocity Potential Anomalies -- shows widespread & strong "upward" vertical motion over much of the Atlantic Basin.  This kind of pattern often correlates with an increase in tropical activity.  As we head toward the peak of the hurricane season, one should be prepared year 'round!

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Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) (increasing shear this week along the path of '91L':

Water vapor imagery:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red).  Wave '91L' will have to deal with some nearby dry air this week.....

SE U.S. surface map.... the front to the north of Jacksonville is the surface reflection of the upper level trough that is turning "Gert" north then northeast well out over the W. Atlantic....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

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