Weather

Hurricane Jose to reach Jacksonville's latitude by Sunday

Sept. 16, 2017 — The Atlantic remains active with "Jose" east of the Bahamas... tropical depression #14 over the E. Atlantic... & another wave destined to develop in-between while heading for the Lesser Antilles.....

Jose:

.... was a major hurricane a week ago but has battled shear the better part of the last 5 days or so.  Movement will be to the northwest with a gradual trend to the north likely intensifying during this time (through Mon.).

I do not see "Jose" moving into Fl..  Indications are that "Jose" will turn northward far to the east of Florida missing the Southeast U.S. coast but the upper east coast is not necessarily out of the woods yet.  An approaching upper level trough of low pressure will at least try to draw "Jose" a little bit northwest by the early to middle part of next week as the system transitions to an extratropical low while flirting with the coast of New England about Wed.

LOCALLY -  for NE Fl./SE Ga: Jose's closest approach will be Sat. night/Sunday BUT 500+ miles to the east.  An easterly swell will reach Northeast Fl./SE Ga. beaches through the weekend with an enhanced rip current risk.  Onshore northeast winds will develop because of "Jose" to the east & high pressure to the north, but the gradient does not look all that strong so winds will only be breezy at the coast & relatively light inland.  The onshore flow out of the east will keep some flood water trapped a little longer along the shores of NE Fl/SE Ga. as well as along the St. Johns River & inland tributataries.

The upper level (500mb) chart below for early Sat. shows the "stream"/troughing that will help pull "Jose" northward before letting go.  Then the approach of a strong upper level trough from the west will have something to say about the long term movement - next week - of Jose.  The mid & upper U.S. east coast could be in for at least some kind of threat from Jose whether tropical or subtropical.  At the very least, rough seas & surf & strong winds will develop from Chesapeake Bay to Maine next week.

NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

Very warm ocean water persists:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Tropical depression #14 has formed over the far E. Atlantic & still has a pretty good chance to become tropical storm "Lee" (if the wave to its west does not become a tropical storm first.... "Maria" is next).  Steady strengthening in the short term will be arrested by strong shear early next week.  It remains to be seen if the tropical cyclone can survive upcoming shear in what otherwise will be a turn more northward in the long run over the open Atlantic.

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The Gulf & Caribbean remain quiet.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area for late month which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief".  In fact, an area of "disturbed" weather at a rather low latitude hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles & just west of t.d. #14 will move west/northwest & should eventually consolidate & develop.  Long range forecast models have - at times - have painted an ominous picture for parts of Fl. & the U.S. coast BUT it's still very, very early on how things might play out.

Spaghetti plots for tropical wave ('96L'):

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

The main development region (MDR) remains above avg. temps. - in fact - only 2005 & 2010 were warmer.  The deep warm ocean water can "energize" tropical cyclones:

SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Hurricane Irma recap: made the turn to the northwest & now north after ravaging the Keys.  Ft. Myers & much of Florida. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...

The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was issued Tue. morning as the storm has become post tropical.

Preliminarily highest water levels from NOAA.  Further ground verification will follow & result in some higher numbers ultimately (probably) - especially for the Keys & S. Florida.  What pops out is the highest so far is the I-295 Bridge (Buckman)!.... then the southerly wind on the east side of Irma pushed all that water north to downtown resulting in the massive once in a generation flood for Riverside & San Marco.  Initial post storm analysis is showing salinity of the St. Johns River at the peak of the "Great Flood" to not be as great as during the peak of flooding during/immediately after Matthew last year.