Irma weakening over U.S.; eye on hurricane Jose & any Jacksonville impacts

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Sept. 13, 2017 — HURRICANE IRMA: Latest updates, shelter info, evacuation info 

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Jose:

.... became a "major" hurricane last week but is feeling the effects of southwesterly shear...  & will languish in the "backwash" of Irma & itself for the rest of the week.  I'm still not certain this simply stays out to sea so bears watching in the long run - 5-8 days - though at least likely to stay east of Fl.  But a building high to the north has to be considered that would cause a possible move more west in the long range. I do not see "Jose" moving into Fl..  Indications are that "Jose" will turn northward far to the east of Florida missing the Southeast U.S. coast but the upper east coast is not necessarily out of the woods yet.  An easterly swell will reach Northeast Fl./SE Ga. beaches through the weekend with an enhanced rip current risk.

The upper level (500mb) chart below for early Sat. shows the "stream"/troughing that will help pull "Jose" northward before letting go.  Then the approach of a strong upper level trough from the west will have something to say about the long term movement of Jose if indeed the tropical cyclone is left behind by the previous trough (which appears to be the case).  The mid & upper U.S. east coast could be in for at least some kind of threat from Jose.

NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

Very warm ocean water persists:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

The Gulf & Caribbean remain quiet.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area for late month which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief".

East Atlantic IR satellite shows another strong tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

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The main development region (MDR) remains above avg. temps. - in fact - only 2005 & 2010 were warmer.  The deep warm ocean water can "energize" tropical cyclones:

SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Irma is still "spinning its wheels" over the middle of the U.S. absorbed by a large but relatively weak upper level low.  The system is now a post-tropical low pressure area & will continue to weaken.

Hurricane Irma made the turn to the northwest & now north after ravaging the Keys.  Ft. Myers & much of Florida. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...

The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was Tue. morning as the storm has become post tropical.  The low pressure area will continue to spin itself out over the Tennessee Valley.  Overall conditions will continue to improve for NE Fl./SE Ga. as each high tide cycle gradually gets lower for the rest of the week.  But some flooding at high tide + residual standing water will continue to be a concern.  'First Alert'! at area beaches where a high risk of rip currents will continue.

SUNRISE: ~7:10 AM .... SUNSET: ~7:35 PM

IRMA BY THE NUMBERS:

- 185 mph winds (Cat. 5) for 37 hours is a record for any tropical cylcone on earth

- a hurricane for 12 days with first NHC advisory Aug. 30th & last one on Sept. 12th

- a Cat. 3 or stronger for 8.5 days - 2nd longest on record (Ivan, 2004 - also hit Fl. [Panhandle])

- 1st Cat. 5 to hit the Bahamas since 1992 (Andrew) - 3rd straight year that a Cat. 3 or stronger hurricane has it the Bahamas

- Strongest hurricane ever to hit any part of the Leeward Islands

- most severe flood on the St. Johns River, Jacksonville since at least 1854

- 1st Cat. 5 to hit Cuba since 1924

- 10th lowest pressure (914mb) on record

Irma remnant low / upper level system over Gulf/Tennessee & Ohio Valley's..... "Jose" over W. Atlantic.....

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