Ophelia over the Northeast Atlantic far from Jacksonville

By: Michael Buresh

Updated:

Oct. 13, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap

"Ophelia" over the far NE Atlantic....

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

A strong tropical wave is to the east of the Lesser Antilles but will likely struggle to move very far to the west in the end.  So a turn more to the north can be expected through next week when some tropical development is possible.  The system should stay far to the east of the U.S.

"Ophelia" went hurricane Wed. afternoon over the Northeast Atlantic but has peaked.  The storm will slowly move east before turning rather sharply north & northeast & accelerating toward the weekend as the system merges with a cold front.  Though no longer tropical, the storm is expected to lash Great Britain & Ireland early next week as a big ocean - extra-tropical - storm with strong winds. 

Interesting map below tweeted by Erik Pindrock shows virtually all of Fl. has experienced at least tropical storm force winds this year... as well as the entire Gulf Coast... & as far north as N. Carolina on the east coast:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf:

Sea surface temp. anomalies over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic:

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). 

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.

One year ago this week - hurricane Matthew made its closest approach to Jacksonville - here.

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