by: Michael Buresh Updated:
Oct. 3, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap
Aug. 24th - Sept. 30th with a named storm over the Atlantic Basin.... 3rd longest streak on record - table below from Dr. Phil Klotzbach. The "September to remember" will almost certainly have 2 names retired by the WMO next year - Irma & Maria.
The "local nor'easter" is winding down although gusty onshore (out of the east/northeast) winds will continue most of this week - especially at the beaches/intracoastal & along/near the St. Johns River as well as higher than average tides resulting in occasional flooding - especially at high tide. The full moon will be Thu. adding an astronomical boost.
Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
Surface map below shows the strong high pressure from the Great Lakes to the Northeast U.S. High pressure will be a mainstay north of Jacksonville for the next week & beyond resulting in a very prolonged period of onshore winds that will eat away at our area beaches. By the time the weather pattern breaks down, it's possible that some of our beaches could experience erosion similar to that of a tropical cyclone.
48 hour wave & wind direction forecast:
Average wave heights:
The Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean will be - as I've hit on often recently - the place to watch over the next week to 10 days. There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief" the first couple weeks of this month.
A cold cold front is strung out over the W. Atlantic to the east of Fl. Some models shows low pressure developing along this front not too far from Fl. which would then be a candidate for tropical development. Eventual movement would be to the west.
A tropical wave is about half way between S. America & Africa. Some slow development is possible though a move all the way across the Atlantic seems unlikely at this point.
It looks like general & broad low pressure will evolve over parts of the Caribbean/Central America & Gulf of Mexico this week into the following week. Depending on any land interaction, this could eventually evolve into a tropical cyclone & will need to be watched closely as this is the time of year for slow but sometimes strong tropical development over the still very warm water of the Southern Gulf &/or Caribbean. Forecast models are not of much help on solving the details for right now, so we'll just have to see how things evolve in the coming days realizing there is a strong signal for tropical development in/over/&/or near the Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic. The models seems to be struggling with all the low pressure & quite literally pop up a new tropical system in one model run that isn't there in the next one only to be replaced new development somewhere else. So we don't want to get too caught up in individual model runs at this point but realize that the pattern does favor tropical development over the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico &/or Caribbean. STAY TUNED!
Eric Blake, NHC tweeted this interesting & concerning snapshot of the Gulf & Caribbean now vs. 2005 which produced record setting hurricane Wilma in Oct., 2005. The upshot: the Caribbean is "boiling"...
Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf. We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.
Sea surface temp. anomalies have pretty much recovered over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria) though Jose & Maria's "cool wake" is still visible.
October tropical cyclone typical development & movement:
From Dr. Phil Klotzbach - tropical cyclone genesis during Oct.:
East Atlantic IR satellite (Cape Verde season winding down but waves still moving west in what has been an unseasonably long Cape Verde season):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.
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Several areas to watch for possible tropical development
First Alert Forecast: Tracking Thanksgiving rain
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Convection over the Gulf of Mexico
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure to develop near Florida
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Dry and stable air pushing deep into the tropics