"Talking the Talking the Tropics With Mike": Eye on area south of Fl. - Oct. 14th

Oct. 14, 2016 — "Nicole" over N. Atlantic... Eye south of Florida....

"Nicole" is moving away from Bermuda & into the N. Atlantic where the system will become a strong post-tropical ocean storm.  According to the NHC, there have only been 7 major hurricanes to pass within 40 miles of Bermuda since 1851. The island took a direct hit Thu. with the eye passing over Bermuda about midday.  "Nicole" was the third "major" (Cat. 3+) hurricane of the Atlantic season - the most since 2011.

Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

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Lots of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

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Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Long range global forecast models continue to show the potential for tropical development south of Florida during the next 7-10 days.  There is absolutely no consistency amongst forecast models but virtually all models at least show a broad lowering of the atmospheric moisture while high pressure stays anchored to the north from the Eastern U.S. to the Central Atlantic.  This set-up could be a recipe for the evolution of a tropical disturbance of some kind.  The GFS model forecast at the bottom is for midweek showing broad low pressure but with a lack of anything organized.  But the GFS has -- at times -- shown strong tropical cyclone development.  At the same time... a pretty vigorous upper level trough will drop over Fl. this weekend followed by yet another upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. next week.  All this low pressure is handled very differently from model run to model run not to mention from one kind of model to another.  So it's time to just watch & see how things evolve.  There will be no "solid" development through at least the weekend.

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S. Wed.  I am working on a write-up regarding "Matthew", but I am days from its completion.  In the meantime, you can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co. -- with much more detailed info. to follow.

Cox Media Group