Talking the Tropics With Mike: Active E. Pacific

Aug. 7, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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A few tropical waves are marching west across the Atlantic as is typical this time of year but little or no development expected this week.

A nontropical wave over the N. Atlantic is moving slowly northeast over the open Atlantic.  A transition to subtropical or tropical is possible before moving back over cooler water but this system will stay far to the east of Bermuda & any part of the east coast of the U.S.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The Pacific remains very active.... hurricane "Hector" continues to move slightly north of due west taking a position south of the Hawaiian Islands Wed.-Thu.  A bend more toward the west in the track should save the Islands any truly significant impacts.  Ileana is dissipating south & west of Acapulco as the system gives way to much larger "John" to the immediate west.  And "Kristy" has formed farther to the west & will stay over open water.

Hector:

Ileana:

John:

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Kristy:

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Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

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