Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin back to relatively active

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Wide view of the Atlantic Basin:

(1) There are several tropical waves imbedded within the convection over & near the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) between the Caribbean & Africa but no indications of true surface low pressure development.  One wave has separated itself from the ITCZ several hundred miles to the east/southeast of the Caribbean but has entered a high shear zone so long term development is not likely.

(2) Low pressure has developed near Bermuda & could try to gradually take on some tropical characteristics - something to watch.  Early indications are that this wave / low pressure will move westward toward Florida &/or the U.S. east coast through the early & middle part of next week possibly reaching Jacksonville's latitude by Tue. then northwest toward the Mid Atlantic coast midweek. There has been some "scuttle butt" that this low is what used to be Florence but upon close examination, I find the low only to be a product of a piece of upper level trough that has broken off from the former tropical cyclone while the surface circulation of Florence zoomed east/northeast.  Therefore, this is not - in my opinion - Florence & if the low were to become a tropical cyclone, it would get a new name.

(3) Low pressure will develop over the N. Atlantic & could become tropical next week while meandering over the open Atlantic for extended time.

(4) An active wave has emerged off the coast of Africa.  Some gradual development is possible.

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

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The Atlantic Basin....

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Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air right up against Florence:

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect now that we're near the height of the hurricane season....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

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