Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic remains quiet overall

Aug. 12, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The Atlantic Basin is more or less quiet.  A weak wave is about half way across the Atlantic but with little potential for development.  Overall... African waves are becoming more frequent & generally more active - as would be expected in Aug. - but no development expected in the short term at least.

A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the north & northeast of the Bahamas.  This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days.  Hector will soon cross the dateline from the Central Pacific - making it a typhoon - having originated in the E. Pacific!  That's only happened three other times - map below tweeted by the "Capital Weather Gang":

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Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

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Updated NOAA seasonal forecast:

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