"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Caribbean low pressure trying to organize - June 17th

June 17, 2017 — The Caribbean remains very unsettled & stormy but with no real indication of organization.  A couple of tropical waves are imbedded within in a large area of tropical moisture.

Much of the Gulf has cleared out for the time being:

Water vapor imagery below shows tropical moisture remains expansive from the W. Atlantic extending southwest through the Caribbean & into the Eastern Pacific.

Still no surface low evident over the W. Caribbean....

Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico tropical development essentially centered on the Yucatan Peninsula continues to look probable into the early & middle part of next week.   The forecast chart below on the GFS model is at 500 mb for early Wed., June 21st & shows two very dominant centers of high pressure.  The expansive Bermuda high is over the Central Atlantic while a second intensifying high is over the Southwest U.S.  So development near the Yucatan Peninsula - which may be interrupted or slowed by interaction with land - appears to be far enough west so as to be steered by the U.S. upper level high.  Therefore, the Western Gulf  - Mexico &/or Texas -- will be the area most likely to be impacted - far to the west of Florida.  If somehow the possible tropical cyclone ends up farther east, then a "shoot" north between the two highs would be something to be concerned about but such a scenario seems unlikely at this point.

The potential long range development near the Yucatan is a climatalogically favored area for tropical development during June:

Meanwhile.... a couple of unseasonably strong tropical waves have emerged off the coast of Africa & are moving west.  It's awfully early in the season to see waves of this strength so far east over the tropical Atlantic... & even more unusual if the waves were to develop.  Virtually none of the reliable long term global models indicate much development, but it's something to keep an eye on. The lead low latitude wave is about midway between S. America & Africa & is particularly active speeding steadily west, eventually a little northwest on the underside (south) of the broad & large Bermuda high centered over the Central Atlantic.

As active as the Atlantic Basin is, an analysis of wind shear shows why development will likely be slow, if at all.  Shear exceeds 50 knots in a west/east belt from the Gulf of Mexico across the Caribbean & across much of the Central Atlantic.  Such wind shear is often the enemy of tropical systems - not allowing for sustained updrafts/organization.

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