"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Central America prepares for "Otto" - Nov. 23rd

Nov. 23, 2016 — The first week of the Atlantic Basin '16 hurricane season began with a named storm ("Bonnie" then "Colin") & will end with a named storm during the last week of the season......

Small & compact "Otto" became a hurricane Tue. - the latest that a hurricane has formed over the Caribbean since 1851 beating -- by a day -- "Martha" in 1969 only to weaken again to a tropical storm.  There's the potential for reintensification into a hurricane as the storm makes a move west.  No change in the steering influences as a pretty stout upper level ridge develops across Mexico, the Northern Caribbean & Southern Gulf of Mexico which will help take "Otto" westward into Central America.  Heavy rain & high winds will especially affect Costa Rica & Nicaragua into Thu. with fringe effects for Panama & Honduras.

"Otto" will not impact Jacksonville or any of the U.S.

Water vapor imagery:

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  "Otto" is on the border of the stronger shear over the SW Caribbean.....

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Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

There is still a quite a bit of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit & those water temps. are starting to shift south with the change of seasons.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Sea surface temps. have turned a little cooler than average around Florida north up the Carolina coast while "toasty" water is underneath "Otto".

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