Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Couple of upper air disturbances producing storms

June 23, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

An early season storm - "Alberto" is in the books so "Beryl" will be the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

No areas of concern at the moment across the Atlantic Basin.  An upper low is spinning over & near the SW Gulf of Mexico producing some disorganized convection but not tropical development is likely.

A surface trough & upper level disturbance is located near & north of Puerto Rico & east of the Bahamas producing rain & storms but - again - tropical development is unlikely.

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are a little below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

0

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

1

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific has gone relatively quiet after a flurry of activity the last several weeks.  There are, however, a couple of disturbance well west of Mexico with potential for some long term development.