Talking the Tropics With Mike: Debby transitions to fully tropical over the N. Atlantic

Aug. 8, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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"Debby" has developed over the N. Atlantic making a transition from subtropical to tropical from Tue. through Wed.  Debby will encounter cooler water temps. + increasing shear & should dissipate by Fri. or so.

Debby has a history in Jacksonville.  Remember that the names repeat every 6 years (unless retired).  It was the last week of June, 2012 when a disorganized & relatively weak Debby moved east across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico.  The storm dumped heavy rain across the area - 10-20" - causing widespread flooding.

7-day Doppler radar estimated rainfall from June 20 - 27, 2012:

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet with no tropical development expected through at least the weekend...

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The Pacific remains very active.... hurricane "Hector" continues to march west taking a position south of the Hawaiian Islands into Thu.  The track will save the Islands any truly significant impacts though some gusty winds & rough seas/surf will impact the big island through late Thu.  Ileana has become absorbed by much larger "John" over the Eastern Pacific.  John will move northwest staying away from any land areas quickly weakening by late week.  And "Kristy" has formed farther to the west & will stay over open water.

Hector:

John:

Kristy:

Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

Cox Media Group