"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Disorganized Caribbean t'storm activity - Nov. 20th

Nov. 20, 2016 — Low pressure continues over the far Southwest Caribbean.  T'storm activity is persistent but disorganized.  Gradual tropical development is still possible.  It doesn't look like this system will manage to get out of the Southwest Caribbean so no threat to the U.S.

Water vapor imagery:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

0

Gulf of Mexico:

1

East Atlantic:

There is still a quite a bit of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit & those water temps. are starting to shift south with the change of seasons.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Sea surface temps. have turned a little cooler than average around Florida north up the Carolina coast.

Cox Media Group