Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disorganized wave east of the Caribbean

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A low pressure area that originated over the Caribbean then moved across Central America has emerged over the far E. Pacific where development appears likely just off the coast of Mexico while moving W/NW.

A poorly organized tropical wave - but with quite a bit of t'storm activity - is located east of the Lesser Antilles.  Movement will be to the west/northwest & pretty strong shear should keep the system in check.

Forecast models are indicating low pressure developing mid to late next week over the Northern Gulf along a front but tropical development looks unlikely.

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in the fall....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies:

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SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Cox Media Group