Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Displaced Bermuda high - June 28th

June 28, 2016 — A very quiet Atlantic Basin continues.  There are a series of cool fronts & upper level low pressure areas over the Atlantic + some weak low latitude tropical waves moving west across the Atlantic but no development expected anytime soon.

One thing of note as far as the Atlantic is concerned.... there has been a persistent area of strong surface high pressure over the Northeast Atlantic -- see the map below.  If this feature (appears to be a displaced Bermuda high) becomes a mainstay through the heart of the hurricane season, any deep tropical systems that might develop will be steered farther to the west.  How far west will depend on the exact location & intensity of the high pressure.

The 2nd image below is the water vapor satellite & shows a series of upper level troughs of low pressure from the Eastern Gulf & Northern Caribbean east across much of the Atlantic.  Such a weather pattern results in pockets of very dry air (rust colored areas) as well as -- overall -- high levels of shear.  In otherwords, conditions are not particularly favorable for tropical development over a pretty large area.  I might mention that such a hostile environment is not at all unusual this early in the season except that the depth (degrees south) of the troughs of low pressure are pretty impressive which has helped to suppress the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  So -- for right now -- any tropical waves moving west will have to take a far southern route which is also generally not favorable for development.  Having said all this.... the deep tropical wave season -- off Africa & then waves chugging west -- is still at least a month away.  But this pattern will be something to watch & to see how it might evolve in the coming weeks.