Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Disturbance approaching Bahamas - Aug. 21st

Aug. 21, 2017 — Harvey remants continuing west over the Caribbean... NO impact on Jacksonville... PLUS disturbance approaching the Bahamas......

"Harvey" degenerated into an open wave late Sat. as shear - at least for the moment - has overwhelmed the system. The remnant wave will slow over the next few days as it starts to turn more northwest which - combined with lessening shear - could lead to re-intensification.  The disturbance will then move over or near the Yucatan Peninsula before emerging into the good ol' Bay of Campeche where conditions appear much for favorable for stregthening IF the disturbance can reorganize.

"Harvey" will stay far to the south & west of Florida so no impacts on Jacksonville or any of Fl.

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The combinantion of an upper low & tropical wave - '92L' - is near & east of the Bahamas. The wave will meander into the SW Atlantic east of the Bahamas over the next couple days. While most models are keeping an open wave, this feature is still something to closely watch.  Shear will be lessening + the atmosphere will be becoming more moist, so there is some potential for a "better" environment by the middle of the week, so we'll have to monitor the progress & movement of the wave.  The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!...  Always be prepared!

East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa.

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) - increasing shear along the path of "Harvey" once into the Caribbean.... as well as in the vicinity of '92L'....

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Water vapor imagery:

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Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) still pretty persistent & widespread over the E/NE Atlantic.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean: