"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Disturbance near Bahamas - Oct. 19th

Oct. 19, 2016 — ..... A "deep dive" into hurricane "Matthew" - a total & quite personal review - click -- here -- .............

Wave '99L' near/east of the Bahamas.... first time without an active tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Basin since the 25th of September.....

Wave Invest '99L' is very disorganized east of the Bahamas with convection even occurring as far south as Puerto Rico as westerly shear limits attempsts to consolidate.  But overall pressures are falling.  But this is an area to watch with development pretty likely by late week/this weekend.  The disturbance is already pretty far east & one of the keys to its ultimate movement will be a strong upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. by this weekend -- see the GFS model upper level forecast -- 5th image below.

It looks like the upper level trough will manage to pick up '99L' & move what should at least become a subtropical -- but probably tropical -- storm northward.  There will be an initial "tug" northwest for a time Friday but the disturbance will then quickly attach to the surface cold front which will accelerate the system north then northeast as it becomes absorbed with a stronger / intense midlatitude cyclone over far Eastern Canada.  There could, however, be some impacts for parts of New England, Nova Scotia & Newfoundland depending on how the interaction evolves.  So I'm keeping what should become "Otto" to the east of Florida.  Keep in mind:

(a) forecast models this year have had a bias to be too far east (Hermine, Julia & Matthew to name just a few).  But even so -- the deep incoming upper level trough should still manage to capture '99L' insuring a move eventually over the N. Atlantic

(b) typhoons over the W. Pacific -- see bottom of this post -- might again give us a hint on future development over the W. Atlantic &/or Caribbean - possible more westward movement than currently indicated by forecast models.  But any more westward move will be well to the north of Jacksonville.

Spaghetti model plots for Invest '99L':

500 mb upper level forecast for early Fri.  The upper level trough is keep in "protecting" the Southeast U.S. from what should become "Otto"......

Zoomed in IR satellite of '99L':

Surface map forecast for early Saturday shows the strong cold front pushing well to the south & east exiting Florida (1st of autumn to do so) while the attendant strong low pressure system -- that will help absorb whatever comes of '99L' -- is over extreme Northeast New England.

Nothing indicated at the moment but the Caribbean may still be an area to monitor for potential long term development....

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Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico/W. Atlantic/Florida while moisture gathers over the SE Bahamas/Central Atlantic & Caribbean.  Once developed, '99L' will be fighting that dry air to the west but the incoming upper level trough should help with upper level ventilation.

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows a lot of shear in the vicinity of '99L' - not at all uncommon this late in the hurricane season:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Lots of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co. -- with much more detailed info. to follow.

Meanwhile..... the W. Pacific.... Typhoon "Sarika" hit the Philippines this past weekend while powerful "Haima" will catch the far Northern Philippines... stay southwest of Taiwan then on into China by late week/this weekend .

"Haima":

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