Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance near Yucatan headed for Bay of Campeche

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A tropical wave & disorganized showers & t'storms continue near the Yucatan Peninsula & Bay of Campeche.  The disturbance will turn north then northeast as an upper level trough digs into the Central & Southern U.S. to the north.  At this point, it looks like weak low pressure will evolve then move quickly northeast by Fri. into Sat. coming ashore over Central Gulf Coast by at least Saturday.  There is some chance for some tropical development before the low merges with the cold front & is absorbed by the upper level trough over the weekend.  Expect at least some heavy rain Fri./Sat. from the Texas coast eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama.

Rainfall forecast:

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

Nontropical low pressure will developing over the open North Atlantic through next week well to the north & east of Bermuda.  There is some chance for transition to a tropical or subtropical low in the long range (7+ days).

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity....  typhoon "Bualoi" will recurve the next few days to the east of Japan.

Cox Media Group