Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance over the W. Gulf of Mexico

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

An early season storm - "Alberto" is in the books so "Beryl" will be the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

There continues to be disorganized & pulsing yet - at times - strong/heavy showers & storms over the Gulf of Mexico.  Forecast models are generally in good agreement that tropical cyclone formation will not occur & the "disturbance" will be limited to a surface trough of low pressure that will move northwest then northward over the Western Gulf of Mexico & over Texas through Monday.  The result will be heavy rain for Texas & Louisiana.  The overall pattern is not particularly favorable - good deal of mid & upper level shear plus dry mid & upper level air that will be advecting in from the west & northwest.  Shear will decrease some over the Gulf but given the fairly swift movement to the northwest then north, time for the disturbance to significantly develop will be limited.  I'll stand by original call he last couple of weeks: no development.

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear.  A hostile environment remains over the Caribbean & Western Gulf....

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are a little below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

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Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific is starting to settle down.  "Bud" has dissipated but tropical moisture has been spreading far to the north resulting in locally heavy t'storms with heavy rain & flooding from New Mexico northward through the Eastern Rockies all the way into the Plains.

"Carlotta" has finally moved inland south of Acapulco - mainly a heavy rain threat though the storm did briefly rapidly intensify Sat. night.