Talking the Tropics With Mike: Ernesto over far NE Atlantic

Aug. 17, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

"Ernesto" has transitioned to purely tropical & remains over the open North/Northeast Atlantic.  Ernesto will move north/northeast far from any land areas becoming extra-tropical over the weekend.  Some wind & rain will affect Ireland & the UK.

A pretty active tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles & steadily moving west/northwest.  The wave will encounter strong shear upon entering the Caribbean so significant development is not likely to occur. IF the wave can survive the shear, there would be some potential for long term development over the Northwest Caribbean &/or Western Gulf next week.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

0

1

Water vapor imagery:

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

0

In the E. Pacific..... "Lane" has become a hurricane.  Lane will steadily move west/northwest positioning itself southeast & south of the Hawaiian Islands next week.

1

2

3

Cox Media Group