"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Gulf disturbance upgraded to "Cindy" - June 20th

June 20, 2017 — Gulf disturbance has been upgraded to "Cindy"... "Bret" over the far Southern Caribbean......

Impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga from either system.: Zero.

Wave '93L' / potential tropical cyclone #3 -- has become tropical storm "Cindy".  After "jumping" north Mon., the surface low has a decent circulation over the Central Gulf just about due south of New Orleans . The low pressure continues to be heavily weighted on the right side - in other words, most of the heavy rain, squalls & storms are over the eastern portion of the low pressure area.  This slow festering if you will -- with a system tilted to the right -- is pretty classic for early season tropical systems.  It's possible "Cindy" will be initially classified as subtropical (not a pure warm core yet).

It is somewhat historical to have two named storms in the Atlantic Basin at the same time during June.  According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St., June 1909, 1959 & 1968 had two tropical cyclones at the same time.  And while June is -- on average -- not a real active month for the Atlantic Basin averaging 1 named storm every other month... the last 2 June's have been the opposite with 3 named storms last year in June... & 2 as recently as 2013 & 2012.

As for track.... the GFS forecast model continues to trend west & is more in line with the European & UKMET (a pretty reliable model during last year's hurricane season) showing a path more to the west.  It looks like "Cindy" will take an alleyway toward Louisiana & Texas - between two strong upper level highs - the sprawling Bermuda high over the Central/Western Atlantic & a building ridge over the SW U.S.

This system will not have a major impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Heavy tropical-like rains will occur through midweek with or without a direct tropical storm hit.  The heaviest rain will be closer to the low from the Florida Panhandle west to Texas where total rainfall will exceed a foot along with a threat for isolated tornadoes.  Tropical storm WATCHES & WARNINGS extend from the upper Texas coast to SE Louisiana.

Spaghetti plots for "Cindy":

Gulf of Mexico satellite imagery shows very strong convection but an exposed circulation center (the convection does not wrap around the center):

Water vapor imagery below shows the expansive tropical moisture plume from the S.W. Atlantic & Florida extending southwest through the Caribbean & into the Eastern Pacific.

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

"Bret" in the SE Caribbean:

Heavy rain for much of the eastern half of the U.S. this week.... particularly near the Gulf Coast as tropical moisture surges north in association with the Gulf tropical disturbance.  Rainfall could reach 15"! near New Orleans with 4-6"+ north into Tennessee.  Major flooding is a concern this week along the I-10 corridor from the Fl. Panhandle to Texas as well as the Southern Appalachians west to the Mississippi River which includes many summer tourist spots.....

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Meanwhile....  tropical storm "Bret" was upgraded late Monday. Tropical storm force wind gusts will affect the far southern Lesser Antilles as well as the north coast of Venezuela & Aruba through early Wed. The system will move steadily W/NW then W steered by the large upper level high over the Atlantic.  Interaction with land + increasing shear will limit "Bret" which will stay far to the south of Florida so no local impacts.  In fact, "Bret's" organization is starting to show some degradation due to the increasingly hostile environment.

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Radar imagery from Northern Venezuela:

Spaghetti plots for wave "Bret":

It's awfully early in the season to see an African wave develop into a tropical cyclone such as "Bret" has managed to do.  Nothing organized moving off Africa for the moment, but there are still some decent tropical waves for this early in the season:

An analysis of wind shear shows why significant strengthening has been -- & will be -- difficult for tropical waves.  Shear exceeds 50 knots across much of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean & SW Atlantic:

Cox Media Group