Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Heavy rain over parts of the Caribbean - Oct. 28th

Oct. 28, 2016 — A large area of "disturbed" weather continues over the Eastern Atlantic at about 10 degrees N, 40 degrees W.  There's some potential for tropical development but there is not much of a chance for movement that would get very far west.  A tropical cyclone in this "neck of the woods" late in the season rarely makes it across the Atlantic.

Disorganized convection continues over parts of the Caribbean mainly in association with a weak surface trough & in the vicinity of the stalled cold front that cleared Florida Saturday.  This might be an area to watch for possible slow surface development but nothing indicated at the moment.  There will be bouts of heavy rain for Cuba & Jamaica as well as parts of Central America.

Water vapor imagery:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

0

East Atlantic:

1

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew":

11 years ago this week - Oct. 24th to be precise - Cat. 3 "Wilma" hammered South Florida as the once powerful Cat. 5 Caribbean hurricane turned then moved rapidly east/northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to the W. Atlantic.  The name "Wilma" was ultimately retired & still to this day is the last "major" (Cat. 3/4 or 5) hurricane to make landfall -- see video from "Ultimate Chase" --  on U.S. soil - the longest such stretch in recorded history.  President Obama will now be the first full two-term president since the mid 19th century to not have a major hurricane make a U.S. landfall. Before "Hermine" earlier this year, "Wilma" was the last hurricane of any intensity to make a direct hit on Florida which was also a record.  "Wilma" set records for the lowest central pressure ever measured in a hurricane (882mb that included a record intensification from tropical storm to Cat. 5 hurricane in little more than 24 hours) + the smallest eye (2 miles across).  Massive destruction of the power grid across South Florida has led to the installation of about 23% more concrete power poles which can better withstand high winds.

NASA satellite imagery after "Wilma" had made the turn to the northeast (strengthening from a Cat. 2 to 3) & after wrecking parts of the Yucatan Peninsula:

The tiny eye of violent "Wilma" over the Caribbean on its way to the Yucatan & Cancun:

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.  The USGS has found record high levels on the St. Johns River at least at two locations in Duval Co. after post hurricane surveys.

In post hurricane analysis, the USGS reports that there were at leat 40 peak flood records in the Southeast U.S. including 2 in Duval Co. along the St. Johns River - Jacksonville & Pottsburg Creek, Southside.

The graph below is the gage height with a maximum where one would expect it - Oct. 7 & 8 - during & right after "Matthew".  But the river stayed high & in flood stage through Oct. 15th (& beyond) as the water was very slow to recede.

I thought this graph was interesting & indicates the salinity [parts per thousand] of the St. Johns River with a big spike at around the time of hurricane "Matthew" - an indication of the huge surge of ocean west from the Atlantic as the east & northeast winds cranked in advance of (to the north of) Matthew's march north/northeast.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.