Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Karl" re-organizing - Sept. 22nd

Sept. 22, 2016 — "Karl" over the Central Atlantic... "Lisa" far E. Atlantic....

JUST PAST THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

The last NHC advisory on  "Julia"  was issued late Sunday & the surface low & associated convection is finally getting truly pushed out to sea well east of the Mid-Atlantic.  A weak piece of upper level "energy" remains behind near the east coast & just north of Jacksonville but should be no problem.

Tropical cyclone "Karl" seems to be finally getting its act together.  Banding features are much more evident on satellite imagery & better inner core development should not be far behind.  The intensification is key for the turn north along with the positioning of an upper level trough near the U.S. east coast along with the upper level high over the Central Atlantic.  The juxtoposition of these two weather features will be the alleyway for "Karl", the sharp turn north & then northeast.  "Karl" could be pretty close to Bermuda by the weekend as a hurricane reaching Jacksonville's latitude but hundreds of miles to the east late Fri. or so.  Given the distance from Jacksonville & expected intensification, easterly swells from "Karl" could reach First Coast beaches by Fri. into Sat.

Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic....

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows a good deal of shea in the vicinity of "Karl" & across much of the Caribbean.....

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Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves continuing to move westward & still lined up across Africa - pretty classic for this time of year though we will be nearing the end of the "wave train" typically within a couple of weeks or so.  A wave that moved off Africa over the weekend is now tropical storm "Lisa" - the 12th named storm of the season.  "Lisa" stays over the E. Atlantic & will be of no threat to the U.S. with shear quickly weaekning the tropical cyclone.

Yet another wave is moving west off Africa but at a more southern latitude with at least some potential for development.  Several long range global forecast models latch onto this wave taking to near the Caribbean in a week to 10 days but with wildy different solutions from model to model, day to day & even from one "run" of the models to the next.  Plenty of time to see how things might shake out.

"Lisa" is already nearing its peak as shear will be strongly increasing soon followed by a turn to the north then northeast over cooler water thanks to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

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