"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Last advisories on "Karl" & "Lisa" - Sept. 25th

Sept. 25, 2016 — Strong tropical wave over E. Atlantic.....

You will hear & see lots of "hubbub" regarding the wave (97L) now far to the east that will be into the Caribbean about the middle of the week.... stay HERE for the "real deal" - just the facts. :) ... models have been, are & will bounce around a lot.  Seems likely that we'll have a system into the Eastern Caribbean by late in the week where what could be "Matthew" will then slow down & reach a crossroads -- to continue west, turn more northwest.... OR take a sharp turn to the north.

IT'S THE PEAK MONTH OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

The last advisory from the NHC on "Lisa" was issued Sat... the last advisory on "Karl" was issued Sunday.

Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic....

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows a good deal of shear stretching from the Gulf of Mexico through a good part of the Caribbean.....

A cluster of t'storms has developed over the Bahamas.  This appears to be tied to a weak surface trough + some upper level dynamics.  We'll need to watch this for any persistence.  Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves continuing to move westward & still lined up across Africa.  Typically... we would be nearing the end of the African "wave train" within a couple of weeks or so.

A strong wave -- 97L -- that moved off Africa late last week is at a more southern latitude than past waves & has strong potential for develop.  Most of the long range global forecast models latch onto this wave taking the wave quickly into the Caribbean by the middle to end of this week.  Definitely a wave to watch but, of course, still very early in the system's evolution.  The key to this wave's track in the long run will be a strong midlatitude trough of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the Lower 48 of the U.S.  This feature may very well draw northward whatever is in the Caribbean.  But if the upper trough is not deep enough (far enough south), the Caribbean system could be missed which would mean movement farther to the west.  Caribbean tropical cyclones have a tendency to thrive in late Sept. - Oct.

0

1

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

In the W. Pacific.... yet another significant typhoon is forming -- "Megi".  The storm is forecast to near recently typhoon-battered Taiwan by Tue.

0

1

Cox Media Group