"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Pair of concerns over Atlantic Basin - June 19th

June 19, 2017 — The Caribbean area of "disturbed weather" -- wave '93L' -- continues to produce numerous albeit somewhat disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Weak surface low pressure appears to be inland over the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula so land interaction will inhibit much strengthening in the short term. The low pressure is heavily weighted on the right side - in other words, most of the heavy rain, squalls & storms are over the eastern portion of the low pressure area.  This slow festering if you will -- with a system tilted to the right -- is pretty classic for early season tropical systems.

The GFS forecast model has trended (thought not as far west) the way of The European & UKMET (a pretty reliable model during last year's hurricane season) showing a track more to the west.  The strength of the system & positioning of two strong upper level high pressure areas will likely ultimately decide the path.  A weaker system could end up farther north & northeast but the upper level strength of the highs could help in the steering to the west.... which is my favored path at this point - Louisiana/Texas or even Mexico.

Either way... the system -- which could become tropical or subtropical "Bret" or "Cindy" if '92L' is upgraded first -- should not have a major impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Heavy tropical-like rains will occur this week with or without a direct tropical impact.

Spaghetti plots for the W. Caribbean wave:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery below shows tropical moisture remains expansive from the S.W. Atlantic & Florida extending southwest through the Caribbean & into the Eastern Pacific.

Surface low over the Yucatan Peninsula:

Strong tropical wave moving toward the SE Caribbean:

Heavy rain for much of the eastern half of the U.S. this week.... particularly near the Gulf Coast as tropical moisture surges north in association with wave '93L':

Meanwhile....  low latitude wave -- '92L' - 'potential tropical cyclone #2' -- is moving into the SE Caribbean while speeding steadily west/northwest on the underside (south) of the broad & large Bermuda high centered over the Central Atlantic.  Tropical storm force wind gusts - & possibly sustained winds - will affect the southern islands as well as the north coast of Venezuela as well as Aruba.  Interaction with land + increasing shear should eventually limit this storm as '92L' stays far to the south of Florida so no local impacts.

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Spaghetti plots for wave '92L':

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It's awfully early in the season to see an African wave develop into a tropical cyclone.  Nothing organized moving off Africa for the moment:

As active as the Atlantic Basin is, an analysis of wind shear shows why organization will be difficult for tropical waves.  Shear exceeds 50 knots across much of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean & SW Atlantic:

Cox Media Group