Talking the Tropics With Mike: Some convection over the Central Atlantic

By: Michael Buresh

Updated:

Nov. 5, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap

Disturbance "festers" over Central Atlantic......

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

An area of nontropical low pressure -- with disorganized showers & t'storms -- persists over the Central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda.  Some slow subtropical development will be possible while the system moves slowly north/northeast over the open Atlantic.  There is no threat to the U.S. or Caribbean..

About 1 out of every 3 November's will produce a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Basin:

Interesting map below tweeted by Erik Pindrock shows virtually all of Fl. has experienced at least tropical storm force winds this year... as well as the entire Gulf Coast... & as far north as N. Carolina on the east coast:

..... in what has been an overall active season:

Deep oceanic heat content is still evident over the Caribbean but is beginning to "bow its head" to late fall.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). 

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.

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