"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Storms flare near Puerto Rico - Nov. 18th

Nov. 18, 2016 — T'storms have flared near Hispaniola & Puerto Rico -- we'll have to watch for persistence.  Otherwise... the weak low pressure continues over the Southwest Caribbean but with little additional development or organization this week.  Some slow tropical development is still possible, but the low will stay tucked over the Southwest Caribbean.

Water vapor imagery:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

0

Gulf of Mexico:

1

East Atlantic:

There is still a quite a bit of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit & those water temps. are starting to shift south with the change of seasons.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Sea surface temps. have turned a little cooler than average around Florida north up the Carolina coast.

Cox Media Group