Talking the Tropics With Mike: Subtropical depression #5 forms over N. Atlantic

Aug. 15, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The low pressure area over the N. Atlantic has become a subtropical depression & may very well become "Ernesto" - yet another example of modern technology & the ability of satellites to find storms in the middle of nowhere.  This is the 4th Atlantic system this year to be subtropical.  This depression will move north/northeast far from any land areas before becoming extra-tropical by the weekend.

A tropical wave about half between S. America & Africa is moving west/northwest & has some occasional convection.  No short term development is expected but this might be a wave to watch for next week.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

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Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

Cox Media Group