Talking the Tropics With Mike: T'storms continue to flare near Yucatan Peninsula

June 15, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

An early season storm - "Alberto" is in the books so "Beryl" will be the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

There continues to be disorganized & pulsing yet - at times - strong/heavy showers & storms over & near the Southwest Caribbean & Yucatan Peninsula.  Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will certainly limit any organization in the short term & longer term potential over the W. Gulf of Mexico is limited. Forecast models are generally in good agreement that tropical cyclone formation will not occur & the "disturbance" will be limited a surface trough of low pressure that will move northwest then northward over the Western Gulf of Mexico & over Texas through the weekend.  The result will be heavy rain for Texas & Louisiana. Some "folks" - including local t.v. mets - jumped on the bandwagon of the GFS since the model sniffed out Alberto a couple of weeks ago, but the model also had mid May development that failed to occur.  Some even posted on social media sites maps of hurricanes moving into Texas - irresponsible unfortunately.  In any case.... the overall pattern is not particularly favorable - good deal of mid & upper level shear plus dry mid & upper level air that will be advecting in from the west & northwest.  Personal opinion/side note: too much reliance on models these days when it comes to weather forecasting.  Sigh.

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear.  A hostile environment remains over the Caribbean & Western Gulf....

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are a little below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

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Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific is still pretty active.  "Bud" - after quickly becoming a Cat. 4 off the coast of Mexico - has become a shadow of its former self after coming ashore on the south coast of the Baja of California. Impacts will be minimal with some heavy rain, gusty winds & rough seas/surf.  Some tropical moisture will spread north into parts of New Mexico & Arizona by the weekend producing areas of heavy rain & possible localized flooding.

Tropical depression 4-E has formed south of Acapulco & may become a minimal tropical storm before moving inland over Mexico - mainly a heavy rain threat.

Cox Media Group