"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Tropical wave moves west away from Florida - July 14th

July 14, 2017 — The remnants of tropical depression #4 -- a tropical wave -- moved across Florida Thu. & will continue west across the Gulf of Mexico with no redevelopment.  Radar imagery below courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:

A tropical wave is moving into the Caribbean but strong shear will keep this wave in check....

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows a well established "blob" of African Saharan dust (orange & red) continues over the Central & especially E. Atlantic - an indication of the dry air.

The Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean & SW Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Wind shear analysis - pretty harsh across the Central Atlantic & much of the Caribbean (typical for July):

Tropical waves are moving off the coast of Africa but are not particularly impressive.  The area is largely being held in check by the Saharan dust plume alluded to earlier.... & the "popcorn" type cloud cover from 10 to 30 degrees N (also visible in the 4 image from the top) is indicative of stable air.  Forecast models - as a whole - have backed off on development eminating from the deep tropics over the next week - 10 days.  But the overall environment for tropical cyclones over the deep tropics will become more conducive for tropical development the last 10-12 days of July, so the Central Atlantic will remain an area to watch.

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In the E. Pacific.... hurricane "Fernanda" is strengthening over open water & will move steadily west/northwest.

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July hurricane landfalls are not real common anywhere in the U.S. & that's certainly true for Florida. The Texas coastline is the most favored area this time of the season.  Map courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU....

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