"Talking the Tropics With Mike" T'storms Central & SE Atlantic

By: Michael Buresh

Updated:

Nov. 2, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap

Disturbance over the Central Atlantic...

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

The convection over the middle of the Atlantic is in association with an upper level trough & nontropical surface low with strong shear & dry air in the vicinity.  There are no indications of much organization & little development is likely with this system.

A "blob" of convection is at a much lower latitude west of Africa but no organization indicated & little development likely.

Global tropical cyclones.  "Damrey" is forecast to become a Cat. 1 typhoon & move into Vietnam.

About 1 out of every 3 November's will produce a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Basin:

Interesting map below tweeted by Erik Pindrock shows virtually all of Fl. has experienced at least tropical storm force winds this year... as well as the entire Gulf Coast... & as far north as N. Carolina on the east coast:

..... in what has been an overall active season:

Deep oceanic heat content is still evident over the Caribbean but is beginning to "bow its head" to late fall.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). 

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.

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