Weather

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": T'storms increasing over the Bahamas - Oct. 16th

Oct. 16, 2016 — "Nicole" over N. Atlantic... Falling pressures south & east of Florida....

"Nicole" -- after hammering Bermuda Thu., is till over the N. Atlantic moving slowly with a gradual transition to a post-tropical large ocean storm.  According to the NHC, there have only been 7 major hurricanes to pass within 40 miles of Bermuda since 1851. The island took a direct hit Thu. with the eye passing over Bermuda about midday.  "Nicole" was the third "major" (Cat. 3+) hurricane of the Atlantic season - the most since 2011.

Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico while moisture gathers over the Bahamas & SW Atlantic:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

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Lots of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

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Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Long range global forecast models are highly variable on any potential tropical development south -- or now -- east of Florida this week.  As a whole, most of the models have backed off on strong development, but that doesn't mean a system won't develop.  Remember - JUST models!   Pressures are generally slowly falling over the Caribbean & Southwest Atlantic while high pressure is a general mainstay to the north.  All this low pressure over the tropics & subtropics seems to be confusing the models & is handled very differently from model run to model run not to mention from one type of model to another.  So it's time to just watch & see how things evolve.  But we have (2) areas to keep an eye on:

(1) Bahamas

(2) Caribbean

Forecast models are bringing a pretty extensive upper level trough into the Eastern U.S. through the upcoming weekend which may very well play a role in development & especially movement of any tropical disturbance that might develop.

Early Wed. GFS model forecast shows the surface high pressure north of Jax with broad low pressure to the south but a lack of anything substantial at this point:

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S. Wed.  I am working on a write-up regarding "Matthew", but I am days from its completion.  In the meantime, you can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co. -- with much more detailed info. to follow.

Meanwhile..... the W. Pacific is "cookin'" again.  Typhoon "Sarika" hit the Philippines Sat. & will roll across Southern Hainan while "Haima" is strengthening & will take a path a little north of its predecessor, "Sarika".

"Haima":

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