Talking the Tropics With Mike: Upper level trough to develop over Eastern U.S.

July 18, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

The Atlantic Basin has gone quiet.....

An upper level trough will set up shopt over the Eastern U.S. & moves only very slowly throught the weekend before starting to "back up" to the west.  This trough could induce cyclogenesis - the development of a surface low - near the east coast late in the week into the weekend.  Any tropical transition would be gradual, but it is something to watch.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Full Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

0

Water vapor imagery:

1

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Cox Media Group