"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Wave Central Atlantic - June 30th

June 30, 2016 — A pretty active low latitude tropical wave -- accompanied by persistent convection is moving westward.  No short term development is likely - lots of nearby dry air + some shear - but this wave might be something to watch for next week over the Caribbean or SW Atlantic though no models are latching onto it.

Tropical wave with showers & storms at about 10-12 degrees N. over the Central Atlantic fighting against a sea of dry air:

I posted last week about the velocity potential anomalies in conjunction with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) & how the green (rising air) would gradually move eastward around the globe & indeed we're seeing that this week.  Notice the lack of much widespread convection where the air is sinking (brown lines) - Atlantic Basin - vs. the rising air (green lines) over much of the Central & Western Pacific.  The "fruit" of this rising air should help pop a storm over the E. Pacific by next week.  We'll then see the rising air overspreading the Atlantic Basin from approximately the 10th through the 20th +/- of July.

Cox Media Group