Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure along the U.S. east coast

Aug. 18, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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It was 50 years ago this weekend - Aug. 17-18, 1969 - that intense Cat. 5 hurricane Camille hit the Central Gulf Coast roaring ashore near Bay St. Louis, Louisiana during the middle of the night. The relatively small but violent hurricane is one of only 4 (in addition to Labor Day hurricane, 1935... Andrew, 1992... Michael, 2018) Cat. 5 hurricanes to ever make landfall on U.S. soil. The Mobile N.W.S. has an informative online write-up * here *.... vintage photos from the Times-Picayune * here *.

Meanwhile... there are some signs that the Atlantic is becoming a little more active.

The velocity potential anomaly map below shows rising vertical velocities (green lines) overspreading the Pacific Basin.  This should help with some tropical development in the short term over the Eastern Pacific & eventually - by late Aug. - over parts of the Atlantic Basin.  And could help get something going this week over the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak low pressure - mostly at mid & upper levels - that formed near & west of Jacksonville, FL. late Friday is moving/propagating northeast.  Little true surface development is likely in the short term as the system gets swept up by a trough to the north & then accelerates to the northeast over the Western Atlantic.  A piece of upper level "energy" has been left behind will meander a little either way of the Fl. Panhandle but with little or only weak surface reflection (low pressure).  The proximity to land - at the very least - would seem to limit any possible organization.

Nonetheless.... & the bottom line: heavy rain will continue along the Gulf Coast & Southeast U.S. coast well into the upcoming week.

Another area to watch during the week will still be the Western Gulf of Mexico.  A pretty decent tropical wave & upper level disturbance will work northward into & over the Western Gulf by mid to late week.  While models show only weak surface development - if any at all - this will be an area to watch for "sneaky" development - historically speaking, the Western Gulf is highly favored in mid to late Aug.

An examination of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic shows a continuation of a good deal of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic.  While such dry air can inhibit tropical development initially, once any waves are farther west or if the wave can stay a little south & out of the dust "cloud" - & IF all other conditions are equal - organization/strengthening can occur.  The 2005 hurricane season stands out (along with several other seasons) as a "dusty" Eastern Atlantic but disturbances simply waited to get out of the dust - further to the west - to develop & then "make history".

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2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

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It was 15 years ago - 2004 - that the Atlantic Basin suddenly came awake in what had been a quiet season so far.  An El Nino abruptly collapsed midseason.... the first named storm occurred near the Carolina coast early in Aug. followed by tropical storm Bonnie that hit the Panhandle on Aug. 12 dropping an EF-2 tornado on Jacksonville's NW side followed the next day by powerful Cat. 4 Charley in SW Fl. at Port Charlotte. Frances, Jeanne & Ivan followed from late Aug. through mid September - all hurricanes that hit Fl. with Frances & Jeanne having profound effects on Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. while Ivan devastated Pensacola taking out parts of the I-10 bridge.  Many in Florida will never forget the '04 season!

There was a lasting impact on Fl. would be an understatement.  Consider:

(1) hurricane days (like snow days up north) were added to school district calendars & remain a fixture for all school districts to this day.

(2) the hurricane deductible was born & is maintained by most Fl. insurance companies to this day. The implication: if a named storm does damage to one's property, a hurricane deductible has to be paid (usually far higher than the standard deductible) before insurance kicks in & pays.

(3) the '04 season was the first time since hurricane Andrew that upgraded building codes were tested.  The results were very positive.

Atlantic Basin today:

East Atlantic:

p>Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. & N. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean: