• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure to develop near Florida

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Nov. 21, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap

    The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

    Less than 10 days left in the 2017 hurricane season!.......

    There are no areas of concern over the Atlantic Basin.

    Convection has flared over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure + upper level disturbance.  While a weak surface low may eventually evolve, no tropical development is expected.

    Otherwise.... a succession of cold fronts are rolling east & south giving the Atlantic Basin a late fall look with widespread areas of strong shear along with cool/stable air diving deep to the south & east.

    Images below from the Storm Prediction Center showing tornadoes (preliminary counts) spawned by U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones.  The great majority were associated with "Harvey" - 57.  The 119 for the year ranks 4th since 1995 only behind 2008, 2005 & 2004.

    Interesting map below tweeted by Erik Pindrock shows virtually all of Fl. has experienced at least tropical storm force winds this year... as well as the entire Gulf Coast... & as far north as N. Carolina on the east coast:

    Interesting tweet & graph from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU - "no statistically significantly trend":

    Deep oceanic heat content continues to wane as we go deeper into fall.....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    East Atlantic IR satellite:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). 

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

    Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.

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