Tropical storm Gert east of Florida - Aug. 14th

Aug. 14, 2017 — Tropical storm "Gert" east of Florida....

.... NO significant impacts for NE Fl./SE Ga.....

Tropical storm "Gert" with satellite data showing decent outflow in the upper levels + some banding features at the surface. The turn to the N/NW then north is underway thanks to a weak but still significant upper level trough + surface cold front along the east coast of the U.S. This set-up will keep the tropical cyclone well to the east of Jacksonville/Fl. & the entire U.S. coastline + well to the west & north of Bermuda later this week.

There will be a bit of an uptick in wave action (an easterly swell) & rip current risk into Tue. for coastal Florida & SE Ga.... with a more significant increase from the SC coast to Chesapeake Bay for midweek.

"Gert" will reach Jacksonville latitude by Mon. afternoon.... about midway between the NC coast & Bermuda by Tue. morning & then accelerating northeast over the open N. Atlantic for the rest of the week where rapid weakening will occur due to cool sea surface water + increasing shear. It is quite possible, however, that "Gert" will attain hurricane strength before reaching these hostile conditions.

3-4 foot breakers at First Coast beaches into early Tue. but the much higher seas will stay well offshore....

Meanwhile.... a large but disorganized area of "disturbed" weather ('91L') is over the Eastern Atlantic. Overall conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone this week over the Central Atlantic. Forecast models vary widely on location, intensity & movement by the weekend into next week on what could become "Harvey". At this point, I favor a more westward move (strengthening Bermuda high over Central/N. Atlantic) on what will likely be a slowly developing system. Stay tuned!

East Atlantic -- tropical waves marching west off Africa are looking rather impressive as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season. There will be a good chance for multiple areas of concern / possible development over the next 1 - 3 weeks.... including what may very well be "Harvey" approaching the SW Atlantic by this weekend.

Model plots for wave '91L' over the E. Atlantic:

Adding fuel to the fire of a possible iminent uptick in activity over the tropical Atlantic: a telling map below -- the Velocity Potential Anomalies -- shows widespread & strong "upward" vertical motion over much of the Atlantic Basin. This kind of pattern often correlates with an increase in tropical activity. As we head toward the peak of the hurricane season, one should always be prepared!

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) (increasing shear this week along the path of '91L':

Water vapor imagery:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red). Wave '91L' will have to deal with some nearby dry air this week.....

SE U.S. surface map.... the front to the north of Jacksonville is the surface reflection of the upper level trough that is turning "Gert" north then northeast well out over the W. Atlantic....