Tropical storm Harvey rolling into the Caribbean - Aug. 18th

Aug. 18, 2017 — Tropical storm Harvey moving into the Caribbean... NO impact on Jacksonville...

"Harvey" is speeding into the Eastern Caribbean & will battle some shear before conditions appear to improve over the Western Caribbean moving into Central America early next week. There is some question as to whether or not the tropical cyclone will be able to survive the hostile environment over the Central & Eastern Caribbean. "Harvey" will stay far to the south of Florida so no impacts on Jacksonville or any of Fl.

Interesting sidenote from Dr. Phil Klotzbach: "Harvey" is one of the so-called originals going back to when male names were introduced into the rotation of names (repeated every 6 years) in 1979.

Note the convection over Hispaniola & Puerto Rico extending north to near & east of the Bahamas - that's in association with an upper level low which eventually may play a role in the intensity of "Harvey" as shear increases over the Central Caribbean. This upper low may also eventually impede the development &/or movement of the trailing tropical wave - '92L' (more below).....

Model plots for "Harvey":

The trailing wave - '92L' - will end up farther north than "Harvey". The wave should be moving into the SW Atlantic east of the Bahamas by late Mon. then potentially near S. Florida by midweek. Shear will be increasing over parts of the SW Atlantic which may impact intensity in the long run. But there is also some potential for a "better" environment by midweek, so we'll have to closely monitor the progress & movement of the wave. The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... an uptick in activity over the Atlantic Basin is underway & will continue for at least the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Always be prepared!

Model plots for '92L':

East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa. The wave at 35W, 15N has good potential but early indications are that this will be an early recurve over the open Central Atlantic.

Sea surface temps. in the main development region (MDR) of the deep tropical Atlantic are above avg. which can add "energy" for tropical systems:

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) - increasing shear along the path of "Harvey" once into the Caribbean.... as well as in the vicinity of '92L'....