Tropical storm Maria just east of North Carolina but moving away from Jacksonville

By: Michael Buresh

Updated:

Sept. 27, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap

Live updates: Maria is a tropical storm east of N. Carolina

 "Maria" crawlng northward - tropical storm WARNING for coastal N. Carolina.... hurricane "Lee" over Central Atlantic.... there has been a named storm at least somewhere over the Atlantic each day since Aug. 23rd!..... & a tropical cyclone producing hurricane force winds somewhere over the Atlantic Basin each day during Sept. so far!

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

Maria:

LOCAL (JACKSONVILLE) IMPACTS  - Maria has made its closest approach & is moving away:

- rip current risk is gradually improving though there remains a good deal of debris in the water.... + the risk increases again over the weekend into much of next week

- no rainfall..... no high winds .... no storm surge directly associated with Maria for NE Fl./SE Ga.

Maria went Cat. 5 & then some with a minimum pressure of at least 909 mb Tue. evening making the hurricane among the top 10 most intense on record for any part of the Atlantic Basin. Maria was the 2nd Cat. 5 of the season over the Atlantic - the first time that's happened since 2007 (Dean & Felix). The catastrophic move over Puerto Rico caused some weakening before more intensification once over the warm water of the Southwest Atlantic.  A gradual weakening since late last week will continue now as shear increases out of the west & southwest & the eye moves over cooler water.

When it comes to movement.... how do we solve a problem like Maria?  The combination of Maria following a wake of sorts to the south of what was "Jose".... & an approaching upper level trough is allowing for the closest approach of Maria to the N. Carolina coast through late Wed.  Then an approaching upper level trough will finally pick up Maria causing a sharp right hand (east) turn Thu. through the weekend with an acceleration over open water to the northeast where the storm will gradually become part of a large nontropical storm over the N. Atlantic.

Spaghetti model plot for Maria:

Average wave heights:

NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

NOAA satellite imagery of Puerto Rico "electricity from space" - before vs. after "Maria":

Lee:

"Lee" went through a rapid intensification cycle over the weekend becoming a hurricane over the Central Atlantic.  The small but rather powerful tropical cyclone is about to follow the same fate as Maria feeling the effects of an approaching upper level trough which will cause an about-face movement to the north followed by an acceleration to the northeast over the N. Atlantic.  No land areas will be threatened by Lee.

Band of clouds stretching from Canada to the Southern Plains is the approaching surface cold front & upper level trough that will guide Maria & Lee well out to sea.

The Gulf remains mostly quiet while the Caribbean is becoming more unsettled.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area over the next 1 - 2 weeks which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief" the first week or so of Oct.  Some forecast models do show weak low pressure developing near Fl. this weekend.  There is some potential for a tropical - or at least hybrid system - developing anywhere from the Bahamas to the coast of Florida.  It appears this feature will be rather weak but something to keep an eye on.

Then general & broad low pressure will evolve over parts of the Caribbean/Central America & Gulf of Mexico next week & beyond.  Depending on any land interaction, this could eventually evolve into a tropical cyclone & will bear a close watch.

Forecast GFS surface map for early Sunday shows the reflection of a weak low near the southeast coast of Florida.  Heaviest rain with this pattern will be across Central & South Florida but locally heavy rain - especially at the coast - will also occur across Northeast Florida.  Strong high pressure will be a mainstay through next week over or near the Eastern/Northeast U.S. keeping strong onshore flow over Florida for many days in a row.

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies are slowly recovering over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)....

border="0" width="479">

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies are slowly recovering over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)....

src="<p>Very warm ocean water persists:</p><p><img border=" />

 

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies are slowly recovering over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)....

border="0" width="479">

Very warm ocean water persists:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies are slowly recovering over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)....

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.

 

Next Up: