Buresh Blog: Early tropical activity... lightning season fast approaching... Jags schedule & weather... AMS weather camp... night skies... local travel after quarantine

Jacksonville, FL — The tropics are “sort of” perking up early. By sort of, I mean it looks like a subtropical low will develop east of Fl. by the weekend, 05/16-17. No local impacts outside of adding some MPH to our onshore (NE) wind which will enhance an already moderate to high rip current risk. Ultimately, the storm is likely to move NE staying well east of the entire U.S. east coast with no landfall expected. “Preseason” storms have become somewhat the norm over the last 5 years or so. The long range trend of early season storms does not necessarily correlate with overall active seasons. However - more recently - there has seemingly been a correlation to active seasons. 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019 all had early season tropical cyclones & ended up being above average seasons. Perhaps more importantly.... there were multiple U.S. landfalls each season. Even 2015 had Cat. 4 “Joaquin” over the SW Atlantic which impacted the Bahamas & infamously sank the El Faro. The “official” Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 - Nov. 30.

Image below by Dr. Phil Klotzbach shows where May named storms have formed going all the way back to 1851:

'Tis the season for frequent lightning storms. An interesting website * here * shows lightning frequency & totals from all around the U.S.! Remember: “When thunder roars, go indoors”.... & wait at least 30 minutes since the last thunder clap before going outside.

The Jags regular season schedule has been announced. Avg. temps:

Sept. 13: @ home vs. Colts: 88 degrees

Sept. 20th @ Titans, Nashville: 81 degrees

Sept. 24th @ home vs. Miami: 84 degrees

Oct. 4th @ Cincinnati: 72 degrees

Oct. 11th @ Houston: 83 degrees (indoor stadium)

Oct. 18th @ home vs. Lions: 80 degrees

Nov. 1st @ LA Chargers: 72 degrees

Nov. 8th @ home vs. Texans: 75 degrees

Nov. 15th @ Green Bay: 43 degrees

Nov. 22nd @ home vs. Steelers: 72 degrees

Nov. 29th @ home vs. Browns: 70 degrees

Dec. 6th @ Vikings, Minneapolis: 30 degrees (indoor stadium)

Dec. 13th @ home vs. Titans: 67 degrees

Dec. 20th @ Baltimore Ravens: 45 degrees

Dec. 27th @ home vs. Bears: 65 degrees

Jan. 3rd: @ Indianapolis Colts: 36 degrees (indoor stadium)

NOAA will have their national weather camp ** virtually ** this year. For info., go * here *.

Night skies into early June (Sky & Telescope):

May 14–15 (dawn): The last-quarter Moon slides a few degrees below Mars.

May 21 (dusk): Venus and much dimmer Mercury are 1° apart low in the west-northwest. Look 30 minutes after sunset.

May 24 (dusk) As twilight deepens, look low in the west for Mercury midway between a thin crescent Moon and Venus.

June 3 (dusk): Mercury appears its farthest east (24°) from the Sun, 24° and sets about 2 hours after sunset.

June 5 (day): A penumbral (weak) lunar eclipse occurs, visible from Africa, Middle East, west & central Asia, Australia

June 7 (night): Saturn, Jupiter, and the waning gibbous Moon appear in a line about 12° long.

Moon Phases

Full Moon - May 7, 6:45 a.m. EDT (Full Flower Moon)

Last Quarter - May 14, 10:03 a.m. EDT

New Moon - May 22, 1:39 p.m. EDT

First Quarter - May 29, 11:30 p.m. EDT

We continue to deal with COVID-19′s impacts in so many ways, but our environment has benefited. The distance traveled dropped dramatically during quarantine in March & April (graphs by Climate Matters) but is now trending upward again upon the “phased reopening”.