Buresh Blog: First true autumn chill... December averages... National Climate Assessment

Nov. 28, 2018 — The "end" of the '18 hurricane season!  "Talking the Tropics With Mike" * here *.

(The "Buresh Blog" is typically updated once per week).....

The first truly cold temps. of autumn have arrived with the first "official" freeze of the season at JIA/Duval Co. early Wed. since March 15th.  Such cold is a bit early for Duval Co. but - inland - about right on time if not a little late.

So I went back into the First Alert Weather climate "bible" & found that we've been way below avg. the last 7 winters when it comes to the number of freezes - avg. is 18 freezes per winter.  The 3 previous winters - 2010-11... 2009-10 & 2008-09 were far above avg. & quite cold.  Yes - the globe is warming, but it doesn't mean we can't & won't have below avg. temps.  Mother Nature is all about balancing, & I suspect a "cold" winter - or series of cold winters - is soon to occur.

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And December is upon us!  The averages at JIA:

Low / high: 1st - 47 / 67.... 31st - 47 / 66 degrees

Rainfall: 2.80"

Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 7:06am / 5:26pm... 31st - 7:23am / 5:36pm - lose 7 min. of daylight

The 4th National Climate Assessment was (conveniently) released the day after Thanksgiving, Nov. 23rd - * here * in its entirety..... summary findings * here * - communities, econony, interconnected impacts, actions to reduce risks, water, health, indigenous peoples, ecosystems & ecosystem services, agriculture, infrastructure, oceans & coasts, tourism & recreation.

Assessing the climate can be a fuzzy & daunting task.  We need to remember that a single storm or event is not evidence for or against climate change.  And "we" should be smart enough & quick to understand that every wildfire, hurricane, storm, drought, etc. is not simply caused by climate change.  In way too many instances, it's man's existence, habits & waste that exacerbate climate change - in micro & macro settings.

The graph below is from the University of Alabama, Huntsville courtesy Dr. Spencer & Dr. Christy showing a distinct recent trend - since the "super El Nino" of 1998-'99 - of above avg. global temps. as measured by satellite:

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Since Jacksonville is essentially a coastal area, the climate assessment summary for oceans & coasts:

Coastal communities and the ecosystems that support them are increasingly threatened by the impacts of climate change. Without significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions and regional adaptation measures, many coastal regions will be transformed by the latter part of this century, with impacts affecting other regions and sectors. Even in a future with lower greenhouse gas emissions, many communities are expected to suffer financial impacts as chronic high-tide flooding leads to higher costs and lower property values.

Rising water temperatures, ocean acidification, retreating arctic sea ice, sea level rise, high-tide flooding, coastal erosion, higher storm surge, and heavier precipitation events threaten our oceans and coasts. These effects are projected to continue, putting ocean and marine species at risk, decreasing the productivity of certain fisheries, and threatening communities that rely on marine ecosystems for livelihoods and recreation, with particular impacts on fishing communities in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, the U.S. Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Lasting damage to coastal property and infrastructure driven by sea level rise and storm surge is expected to lead to financial losses for individuals, businesses, and communities, with the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts facing above-average risks. Impacts on coastal energy and transportation infrastructure driven by sea level rise and storm surge have the potential for cascading costs and disruptions across the country. Even if significant emissions reductions occur, many of the effects from sea level rise over this centuryand particularly through mid-centuryare already locked in due to historical emissions, and many communities are already dealing with the consequences. Actions to plan for and adapt to more frequent, widespread, and severe coastal flooding, such as shoreline protection and conservation of coastal ecosystems, would decrease direct losses and cascading impacts on other sectors and parts of the country. More than half of the damages to coastal property are estimated to be avoidable through well-timed adaptation measures. Substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions would also significantly reduce projected risks to fisheries and communities that rely on them.

Cox Media Group