Buresh Blog: MJO Pulse could mean wetter, more active weather pattern

May night skies

Buresh Blog: MJO Pulse could mean wetter, more active weather pattern

May 13, 2019 — April & May are peak of the dry &, therefore, wildfire season for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Since Feb. 1, not only typically dry but nearly 2.5" below avg.  There are signs of the "wet season" getting underway across S. Florida which is typically followed by a northward trend so hopefully our local wet season will at least start on time if not a bit early.

An interesting "pulse" in the MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation - has been detected over the Pacific.  In its simplest terms, such a pulse corellates with 'upward' motion (green lines) which leads to increased convection.  During the tropical season, it can also point to general development of tropical cyclones.  Such a pulse is spreading east from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin - all the blue & even red is strong convection (t'storms).  So we would expect to see an active (wet) weather pattern over the Lower 48 through the better part of May & MIGHT point to some early season tropical development over the SW Atlantic, Carribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico.  No hype(!) - just something to keep an eye on.

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May/early June night skies as we head for the summer solstice (SkyandTelescope.com):

May 15 (dusk): The waxing gibbous Moon, in Virgo, is about 8° above Spica.

May 19–20 (all night): The Moon, a day past full, forms a wide triangle with Jupiter and Antares in the southeast. Follow the trio as it glides across the sky through the night.
May 21 (morning): Look toward the south-southwest well before sunrise to see the Moon some 5° right of Jupiter.
May 22–23 (morning): The thinning Moon approaches and then overtakes Saturn, ending up about 5° left of the ringed planet.
June 1 (dawn): Look toward the east-northeast before sunrise to see Venus. Can you spot the slim sliver of the waning lunar crescent some 6° right of the planet?
June 10 (all night): Jupiter arrives at opposition, rising in the east at sunset and staying up all night. Throughout the month, the majestic planet will be somewhat brighter than in the past five years.
Moon Phases
New Moon May 4, 6:46 p.m. EDT
First Quarter May 11, 9:12 p.m. EDT
Full Moon May 18, 5:11 p.m. EDT (Flower Moon)
Last Quarter May 26, 12:34 p.m. EDT