Buresh Blog

Buresh Blog: NOAA Winter Outlook

Jacksonville, FL — “Talking the Tropics With Mike” updated every day through Nov. 30th.

NOAA has issued their annual winter outlook. In brief, the forecast is mild & dry for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. The national forecast is largely predicated on an at least moderate La Nina, the 2nd straight winter dominated by La Nina. A word of caution: during back to back La Nina’s, the 2nd one is sometimes more unpredictable AND our warming globe seems to have resulted in less “reliable” ENSO episodes. In other words, weather that’s typically associated with a La Nina & weather that’s typically associated with an El Nino has been less predictable this century.

And a reminder that last year’s relatively mild winter across the South was interrupted in a major way by an intense arctic outbreak in Feb. that pushed into the deep South causing widespread damage, casualties & hardships for especially parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama.

In any case, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific often results in drier weather across the South, cooler across the North & wetter in the Ohio Valley & Pacific NW. But the arctic oscillation (Polar jet) will have something to say from time to time. And it’ll be interesting to see if the above avg. sea surface temps. that are currently present across the Atlantic Basin play a role through late autumn into the winter.

Inland areas of SE Ga. average near 22 freezes per winter... near 18 freezes per year near/west of Highway 301 in NE Fl... 13-15 freeze for N/W Duval Co.... to 10 or less between I-95 & the intracoastal.... to less than 5 nights below freezing on average closer to the beaches. Research from the Jax N.W.S. has shown a tendency for La Nina winters to have big temp. swings - on the low & high end, especially during a weak La Nina. A stronger La Nina - as is forecast this winter - has a tendency to be not quite as extreme but still capable of at least an “average” number of nights below freezing. During last winter’s relatively weak La Nina, there were 12 official freezes at JIA.

Again - a reminder: ENSO (whether La Nina or El Nino) episodes have seemed to be less predictable this century possibly owing to the warming globe & especially warming oceans.

“Typical” La Nina winters would result in continued drought for the SW U.S., Rockies & Northern Plains.... developing drought across the Southern Plains as well as a good part of Fl. & parts of Ga. & the Carolina’s:

Cool equatorial Pacific:

La Nina winters: