Buresh Blog: Updated seasonal hurricane forecast... Hail!.... July rainfall

Buresh Blog: Updated seasonal hurricane forecast... Hail!.... July rainfall

Jacksonville, Fl. — Daily updates on the tropics: “Talking the Tropics With Mike”.

Speaking of which.... Dr. Phil Klotzbach, longtime CSU hurricane researcher & tropical statistic extraordinaire has updated his seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast Wed., 08/05 followed by NOAA Thu., 08/06. If accurate, the numbers would be rather staggering placing 2020 in the top few of the most hurricane seasons on record. The numbers below do include what’s already occurred which translates to ~14-15 more named storms, ~8-10 more hurricanes, ~4-5 of which could be “major” (Cat. 3+). Let’s hope they all stay out to sea. In any case, it is a good idea to always be prepared - First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide..... First Alert Hurricane Center.

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The very active hurricane season continues to be based on already anomalously warm ocean temps. across the Atlantic & a La Nina (cooling of sea surface temps.) in the equatorial Pacific. From NOAA:

Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months. A main climate factor behind these conditions is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time. 

Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.

The map below shows the Pacific sea surface temps. The blue area along & little either way fo t

Tropical cyclone tracks as of Aug. 5, 2020:

Severe t’storms pounded Western Duval Co. - centered on Whitehouse & Marietta - Tue. evening, 08/04. A weak nearby upper level trough is helping to keep the upper levels of the atmosphere a little cooler & - more importantly - is adding some speed shear near the tops (anvil) of the storms helping to induce even stronger updrafts. So despite the time of year (larger hail in Jacksonville usually occurs with t’storms in winter, spring or early summer), a few storms have been big hail producers. At least one 2″ diameter stone fell in the Marietta area along I-10 about 10 miles west of d’town Jacksonville.

First Alert Doppler HD

July ended up being slightly below avg. at JIA both for temps. (-0.1 degrees/82.2 degrees) & rainfall (-0.69″/5.86″). July was the 2nd month in a row with below avg. temps. Other rainfall reports for NE Fl./SE Ga. from our Jax N.W.S.:

NE FL GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT 6.26"

NE FL CRAIG EXECUTIVE AIRPORT 6.41"

NE FL JACKSONVILLE WHITEHOUSE NAVAL FIELD 3.92"

NE FL BEAUCLERC 5.06"

NE FL LAKE CITY 2 E 8.62"

NE FL FERNANDINA BEACH 3.91"

NE FL HASTINGS 4 NE 7.79"

NE FL JACKSONVILLE BEACH 3.56"

NE FL GLEN ST MARY 1 W 9.16"

NE FL OCALA 9.17"

NE FL JASPER 5.19"

NE FL WHITE SPRINGS 7 N 8.60"

NE FL CRESCENT CITY 10.05"

NE FL FRUIT COVE 2 N 10.89"

NE FL OCKLAWAHA 5 NE 10.46"

NE FL BUNNELL/FLAGLER COUNTY EOC 8.23"

NE FL PALM COAST 6.07"

NE FL FLAGLER BEACH 6.07"

NE FL MAYO 5.88"

NE FL ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT 4.17"

NE FL EAST PALATKA 4 NW 10.27"

SE GA ALMA/BACON COUNTY AIRPORT 3.56"

SE GA BRUNSWICK/ST SIMONS ISLAND AIRPORT 2.24"

SE GA FARGO 17 NE 7.66"

SE GA NAHUNTA 6 NE 8.20"

SE GA MANOR 3 NW 8.51"

SE GA WOODBINE 5.40"

SE GA BRUNSWICK 23 S 4.27"

SE GA PRIDGEN 2.57″