Buresh Blog: Updated seasonal hurricane forecast... wet season has been really wet

July 3, 2018 — "Talking the Tropics With Mike" is updated every day during the hurricane season.

Speaking of which.... Dr. Phil Klotzbach has updated his seasonal outlook & has lowered the numbers.  But remember the measuring stick for a season is usually whether or not any storms make landfall & their impacts.  So always be prepared!  Two primary reasons for the lower #'s: cooler than avg. water temps. over the Central & Eastern Atlantic & (2) the anticipated development of an El Nino over the equatorial Pacific.

The map below is very telling.  Note the blue shading - below avg. water temps. by 1-2 degrees C (up to 3.6 degrees F) - from coastal Africa westward to almost Puerto Rico.  Much has been made of this cool water & rightfully so.... to a point.  The water is still 80+ (can sustain tropical systems)... & there's plenty of warm water elsewhere over the Atlantic Basin including a good portion of the Gulf of Mexico.  So we still have to be wary of so-called in-close development of tropical systems throughout the season.

In the Pacific.... note the warming occurring close to the equator from S. America westward (though cool water lurks just to the south).  So there are early signs of a potential El Nino (see "Buresh Blog" post from June 27th) which usually results in higher than normal shear over the Atlantic Basin - an "enemy" of tropical cyclones.  
However, I remind you of the 1992 El Nino driven hurricane season during which there were less than 10 storms & not a named storm until later in Aug., but that was Andrew!

Meanwhile.... our "wet season" (June through Sept.) which started early this year - in May - has continued through June.

Rainfall totals around NE Fl./SE Ga. as provided by our Jax N.W.S.:

FL   MAYPORT NAVAL STATION             4.29                        
FL   JASPER                            7.98
FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                7.68
FL   LAKE CITY                         4.92
FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                     5.50
FL   PALM COAST 6 NE                   7.68
FL   CRESCENT CITY                     5.95
FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP               5.55
FL   HASTINGS 4NE                      2.49
FL   OCALA                             6.62  
FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP        6.88
FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP              9.77  
FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS                  7.37
FL   FEDERAL POINT                     8.97
FL   L. TALBOT ISLAND RANGER STATION   6.42
FL   BUNNELL                           7.08
FL   NE PALM COAST                     8.75
FL   NW PALM COAST                    10.02
FL   W PALM BEACH                      7.19
FL   EAGLE ROCK                        4.31     
 
GA   PRIDGEN                           6.84
GA   HOMERVILLE 5 N                    4.87
GA   ALMA BACON CO AP                  4.45                
GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE                      5.40   
GA   BRUNSWICK                         8.50
GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP     3.52

So with the 4th of July upon us (& gone if you're reading this after Independence Day)... the holiday goes up in a puff of smoke, right?  ..... as in fireworks.  Often times the smoke stays very close to the ground late in the evening & overnight.  That's courtesy a temperature inversion .... as well as high humidity.... in combination with light or even calm winds.  Smoke is much more easily dispersed during the day when the atmosphere is what's referred to as "well mixed" - a breeze + there is little or no temp. inversion.  During the evening as surface temps. cool more quickly than aloft, an inversion develops (warmer air rises, cooler air sinks) which helps cause smoke to stay closer to the ground.  According to the journal "Atmospheric Environment" in a study several years ago, "the level of particulate matter - dust, dirt & soot in the air - increases by an average of 42% on the 4th of July".  Holy smokes.

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